Towards a new political cycle: Governance Scenarios, 2009-2010

Context

Research Process :

Position Papers : (4 ) analytical documents on economy in charge of William Pleitez; the party system, by Álvaro Artiga- González; public opinion tendencies, by Ricardo Córdova; and migrations, by Katherine Andrade-Eckhoff

Leadership voices: 46 interviews were carried out the main economic, social and political characters, about their perception on the electoral situation and its perspectives.

Citizens’ voices: A permanent information monitoring was carried out that involved the principal national and regional opinion surveys, the results of the January and March 2009 electoral process, and the main newspapers.

EL Salvador faces a very particular problem in its history. On one hand, the global economic crisis has a negative impact on the economy, due to reduction of remittances, decrease in exports (especially maquila), and a notable economic de-acceleration in several sectors. The recession threatens to deepen, due to the deficit in current accounts and fiscal fragility, accentuating even more the difficult conditions in which most Salvadorans live. According to CID-Gallup, 2008 in relation to the future, between 6 and 7 out of 10 Salvadorans think that next year their family economic situation and the country situation will be worse. Only one out of ten thinks otherwise, that the situation will improve.

On the other hand, electoral surveys begin to look, for the first time, at the candidate of the FMLN (Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional) as a possible winner. El Salvador has been governed by the ARENA party for four consecutive administrations (since the memorable signing of the Peace Agreements), and the opposition triumph would mark the start of a new cycle for the Salvadoran democracy. There is a climate of distrust in the opposition’s side in terms of the change in government, and acknowledgment of electoral victory in the case FMLN wins the presidential elections.

Given this Scenario, El Salvador will face two big challenges in a medium term:

First Challenge: The Economic Administration. The new government has the responsibility of taking urgent economical political measures. This challenge is unavoidable due to the world recession/crisis, the vulnerability of the population in face of its effects and the high expectations of change that seem to be installed in the society.

This first challenge implies: The economical model orientation; that is, the degree of change in concrete subjects such as the free trade agreement, tax policies, “dollarizations” or privatizations. The capacity of economic administration of the next government, this supposes the capacity to adopt palliative measures in face of the International financial crisis so as to generate bases for the economic reactivation plan, in an adverse external context

Second Challenge: Political Administration. The most urgent decision they need to take as to economic subjects and the institutional changes that will be necessary to respond to people’s expectations will demand construction of dynamic agreements that must mark a change in course with respect to the polarization that has existed for the last 20 years. This second challenge implies: The concentration and dialogue capacity of the next government to consolidate governance schemes that guarantee stability and certainty in relation to the political process and consolidates high levels of civic legitimacy.

In this context, which are the political scenarios that can direct the country in the medium term to a better possible scenario?