Politics and development in Honduras 2006-2009: Possible scenarios

Context

Honduras is a democracy in construction facing successes and challenges.  On one hand, it has achieved more than two decades of constitutional stability, with completion of government periods and rotation of parties in power.  Other data open positive expectations, such as the economic growth of recent years and the opportunities offered by the international context (CAFTA)

However, Honduran institutional stability is not exempt from risk and possible setbacks.  The principal challenges that Honduras is facing can be summarized in three points:

In first place, the difficulties in satisfying the demands and expectations of the population in terms of income, employment, health and education.  This is due to the fact that economic growth is not sufficient to satisfy, in the short term, the different demands.  Honduras has never experienced an episode of sustained growth that should have significant consequences on its per capita GDP[2].

On second place, the deterioration of the political system and in particular of the political parties, which are seen, simultaneously, as incapable of satisfying social demands and as suspects of being involved in corrupt practices.

Finally, the growing complexity of social problems, affected both by a weakening of the traditional negotiation and conflict channels (the unions) as well as the apparition of new social movements (environmentalists, enthnicists), and an increase in the crime forms associated to drug trafficking due to the expansion of juvenile gangs called “maras”.

If the short and medium-term perspectives should be a continuation of the economic growth achieved in recent years, one could count on relatively favorable conditions for focusing on these three challenges.

But several factors that are out of the control of the Honduran governments (such as the evolution of the price of oil or the liberalization of textile prices) open serious questionings on what might happen.  Good use of the opportunities generated by the CAFTA may help partially compensate these risks, but the effects proper to CAFTA effects form part of the uncertainties to be revealed.

Honduran political leaders must then find ways of achieving two difficult-to-reach objectives: increase their own legitimacy in the eyes of the population (for which purpose they must solve problems such as poverty and lack of security), and significantly improve the performance of the Honduran economy, both with respect to the balance of payments as well as fiscal behavior.  All of this must be achieve in the framework of a robust agreement, singe Honduras is near to an elections process, and nothing ensures that the future government will have legislative majorities.  In this framework, an inter-party agreement should imply having better possibilities for action.

In this context the Political Analysis and Possible Scenarios Program (PAPEP) poses the following question:

What is the possible medium term (2006-2009) evolution of the economic and political context in Honduras?