Navigation Chart for the Presidency of the Republic of Bolivia: 2005

Context:

The presidential change that occurred after President Carlos Mesa’s resignation supposes a truce that constitutes an opportunity, perhaps the last one, to re-direct the democratic process as of a renovation, both in the representational plane as of the political periods and contents, of the so-called October and January agendas. However, Bolivia is facing the following challenges:

The situation of extreme polarization that the country lived through the first semester 2005, took place in a medium-term crisis, inflection and change juncture (2000-2005). This situation was expressed in the exhaustion of pact-based democracy and of consensus on economic reforms, and can be reinterpreted as of three concepts with practical implications for the current administration.

An institutional regression, that implied extreme weakness in State institutions and a retrogression in the democratization process built during the last two decades. The institutional regression is expressed in the increase of the weight and legitimacy of the role of the Catholic Church and of the Armed Forces in democratic life, and especially in periods of acute political crisis.

A situation of social stalemate, that supposes the absence of actors with hegemonic capability at a national level, and thus, of power fragmentation. Diverse actors compete for power with partial projects and visions, in some cases opposed, but without real capability for imposing them over the rest. The social stalemate reflects a situation of “fragmented polarization” where two social actors with hegemonic regional capability organize the political debate exercising pressure in the streets and in political negotiations to define parliamentarian dynamics: FEJUVE-El Alto and the pro-Santa Cruz Civic Committee. These actors have partial discursive axis, agendas with high legitimacy and different emphasis, although not necessarily opposed; high capacity for exerting pressure and capacity for joining with other actors. This dynamic is given in a very confusing political climate characterized by a deep mistrust among different social actors and political leaders. Moreover, a conspiracy-theory perception against whoever thinks differently seems to predominate.

A narrow-base economy, that supposed elevated levels of inequality supported and reproduced by a structural divorce between sectors that generate revenues (tradable sectors related to the intensive exploitation of natural resources in an enclave logic) and sectors that generate employment (traditional agriculture and non tradable sectors, basically in low productivity services). The consolidation of the natural gas cycle, on the basis of consolidating Bolivia as a gas provider to the Southern Cone, could well be functional to this type of economy in the coming decades.

From this perspective, the main short-term challenge faced by the government in face of December elections passes by the solution of two dilemmas:

The type of electoral process: Shall it be a “simple” electoral process, without seeking solutions to fundamental problems, or “multiple” allowing the generation of a new correlation of forces in time to generate institutionalism?