Honduras 2008-2030: Energy perspectives and possible scenarios

Context

Honduras shows high dependency on imported fuels which rise in price daily in the marked, and at the same time, there is scant use, in a sustainable and efficient manner, of the available energy resources in the country. This situation works against Sustainable Development due to the high costs implied by import of petroleum products. According to the data of the Action Plan for the of a National Sustainable Energy Policy, June 2005, around 43% of the final energy consumption in Honduras is made up of fuels derived from petroleum or a totally imported origin.  CEPAL dada for 2007 show that the demand for internal use of petroleum fuels marches import levels, with little remaining for other uses such as LPG with residue for export.

Honduras must provide incentives and take advantage of its existing Renewable Resources.  There are several Hydroelectric, Biomass, Co-generation, Aeolic and Geothermal project that could be development.  Said projects are disseminated throughout the nation’s territory and could effectively benefit neighboring cities and populations.  At the same time, the construction, operation and maintenance of this project would generate job opportunities, helping the reduction, in some manner, poverty levels in many families. 

According to data from State Reports and Environmental Perspectives SERNA 2005, geothermal resources in Honduras are not being used in the magnitude they offer.  This potential comes to 125,3 MW. The hydroelectric potential of Honduras is significant, with a great many places having been identified where electricity could be generated with hydric resources.  More than 40 hydraulic energy generation projects have been identified.  This would cover an estimated demand of 2.240 MW, a quite appreciable value, that could r4educe thermal generation significantly, which at present in the country, represents ceasing to depend for these purposes on imported petroleum fuels.

At present there are projects that are beginning operations or are in final stages.  There are 15 real projects that add up to 61 MW that will add to the SIN as of 2008, and others a bit later that that in the same manner will be in operation.

In this context, two dilemmas appear for the preparation of a new Long-term National Energy Policy for the energy sector:

International arena Will there be room to a “favorable” international context with more economy dynamism and greater access to financing, or “unfavorable” with less economic dynamism and less access to financing?

Domestic context Will there be room for a “favorable” internal context with greater presence of the State, increase in GDP and poverty reduction, or an “unfavorable” context with less State presence, a decrease in GDP and stagnation of increase in poverty?