Honduras: “The fourth ballot-box”, the political context in 2009

Context

On March 23, 2009, President Zelaya approves a Decree called “the fourth ballot-box” by means of which he proposed, by means of the National Statistics Institute (INE) a non-obligating popular consultation at a national level on June 26, 2009.  In this consultation citizens would express if they are or not in agreement with the proposition that in November elections a “fourth ballot-box” should be placed (together with the ballot boxes destined for Presidential, Legislative and Municipal elections) to vote in a popular consultation calling a National Constituent Assembly that would approve a new Political Constitution.

Source: Honduras weekly

In face of this proposal, criticism and questioning emerged about the role of the INE, and a concern about the present Administration’s supposed “continuist” (prolonging) agenda.

On one hand, according to a flash survey carried out by the PAPEP on April 2009, six of every ten Hondurans believe that it is important or very important that a Constituent Assembly de convened, and nine out of ten Hondurans say that it is important or very important that presidential elections do take place in November.  At the same time, most citizens would reject any action of imposition or blockading by political actors, in relation to the “fourth ballot-box” and the electoral process.

On the other hand, leaderships interviewed noted that there are latent institutional conflict risks (among branches of government), of political polarization, and of a de-legitimation of the next government.  The leaders consulted present high levels of mistrust in relation to the “fourth ballot-box”. 

In this framework, Honduras faces two great short-term challenges:

1. The “fourth ballot-box”: Implies that the government of President Zelaya must analyze if  a popular consultation should take place or not on June 28 to call a Constituent Assembly..

2. Political dynamics: The placement of the “fourth ballot-box” would demand agreement-building dynamics.  For a possible political agreement, it is necessary to find agreement in relation to two key issues:

• Those relative to the habilitation of the Constituent Assembly as a mechanism of total reform of the Constitution, included its stony contents, and its nature, scope and limits, and
• Those relative to the concrete or specific conditions for the convocation to a Constituent Assembly that have to do with answers to questions on what, who, how and when of this reform mechanism.