Haiti 2010: Possible scenarios after the earthquake

Context:

Six years after UN intervention in Haiti, due to the overthrow of President Aristide and the elevated degree of violence and lack of control in February 2004, Haiti is now in a transition stage.  The current government of President Préval, has made great progress in terms of security, recovering “public order”, but these advances have not been sufficient to reestablish a social and economic development and institutionalism agenda to strengthen the State.

There is scarce respect for legislation among the people and a lack of trust among citizens, which comes from a low level of participation in social or political matters.  Institutions are weak with exception of the Presidency of the Republic, and its economy is one of the most fragile in Latin America[1].

Source: digital journalism. This context is made more serious by the earthquake of January 12, 2010, which causes great material and human losses and makes a re-foundation strategy necessary.

This re-founding implies the construction of public institutions through agreements and pacts that will permit the creation of a stable political order, thus satisfying the immediate needs of the Haitian people in face of the emergency.  According to leaders consulted by the PAPEP on February 2010, progress cannot be made without the support of the international community during the next five years.  Citizens consulted feel anxiety and fear of the future.

On the other hand, Haiti is preparing for Presidential elections programmed for November. Legislative elections were postponed until April due to the earthquake.  According to focus groups held in February 2010, the elections are important for the population, but they must first emerge from the crisis.  Both elections generate discussion on the guarantees and transparency under which they take place, due to the number of deaths caused by the l earthquake (200000) and the collapse of the electoral organization apparatus and registry system.

In this context, Haiti presents two short-term dilemmas: How to concretize an agreement on parliamentary renovation procedures, on the holding of elections and on the mechanism for replacing the President?  and, how to respond to the expectations of the Haitian population in face of the emergency?