¿What is the PAPEP?

The Political Analysis and Prospective Scenarios Project, carried out by UNDP-RBLAC since 2003, is a high-level knowledge network for strategic political analysis and advice for development. The network is specialized in the production of short and medium-term prospective political scenarios to assess the impact of political processes on development and public policies; the promotion of high level debates on strategic issues in public agendas; and capacity-building for prospective political analysis within key national institutions. The project is characterised by a number of actions which range from the production of substantive knowledge products (applied research and analysis) to the fostering of dialogue and consensus building for decision-making (political advice) on strategic issues in national development processes.

The PAPEP has developed a conceptual framework and a methodological toolkit which are common to all PAPEP studies. However, project implementation is flexible and adaptable to the ever-changing needs of national partners and each country’s particular reality. The project’s network is made up of a group of experts (renowned analysts, scholars and politicians) specialized in strategic political analysis and with proven expertise in interaction with and advice to high ranking government decision makers. The experts know and manage the PAPEP methodological toolkit and contribute to its design and development.

PAPEP research and analysis aim at building prospective scenarios in order to foster today’s political interaction, dialogue and decision making. Following an empirically based analysis of a given country situation, institutional reality or public policy, the project builds prospective scenarios so that development actors, both international and national, can think about the future and especially about what can be done to shape it in a participatory and consensus based way. The PAPEP’s work is not over when the study results are presented or published. The project, supporting the UN Resident Coordinator (RC) and other international cooperation actors, also plays an active role in the political interaction that results from its prospective analysis. The PAPEP goes beyond information gathering and analysis. Through scenario building and collective reflection it promotes debate among the relevant socio political stakeholders on what can be done in the present to shape the most desirable future.

Why does the papep do political analysis?

PAPEP believes that politics matter for development. Support for public policies, development projects and institutional functioning can be weakened by lack of attention and not understanding their political implications and sensitivity, and by missing the constraints determined by given actors’ interests and power structures. For a policy, institutional reform or development project to be effective it is important to identify the political interests that are at stake. PAPEP considers that there are at least three key political factors to be taken in account for a given public policy to be successful or institution to be effective:

1. The political constraints and actors’ interests underpinning a given initiative or project need to be taken into account. They are just as important for success as the conceptual design of the initiative;
2. Similarly, stakeholders’ political consensus on the way a given initiative will be implemented is as important as its technical work plan.
3. Finally, political timing (the relation between short-term costs and mid and long-term benefits of a given initiative), and the way it is managed plays a key role in how successfully the project/policy is implemented.

The PAPEP aims at strengthening political capacities in development management. What differentiates the PAPEP from most other political analysis approaches is that the project does not end when the analysis results are delivered. Presenting the results is the first step to start thinking about the future and how to work on achieving the best possible scenario available. The PAPEP plays a key role at this stage since, once the analysis results are presented, it fosters political interaction with and among the main socio-political and economic actors. This interaction can result in the creation of a road map to be followed by decision makers who have reached a consensus on key policies and how to resolve critical political situations. All the project efforts, from the research and analysis stage to the scenario building and results presentation phase, are targeted at fostering political interaction to promote common solutions to a given political situation/critical moment or strategic public policy.

The strengthening of development management’s political capacities also entails the training and capacity building of national human resources who will be able to implement the PAPEP analytical and advisory approach within UNDP Country Offices (COs) and national institutions. While on the one hand the PAPEP generates political analysis and fosters dialogue, on the other it involves actors who will become familiar with the project ends and methodology in the implementation process. The PAPEP network not only leads to political interaction but also trains national human resources in prospective political analysis and strengthens their capacity to advise. These individuals can operate as PAPEP teams or focal points within UNDP COs, contributing to supporting the COs analytical and interaction capacities, and eventually new PAPEP operations in the country. At the same time, implementing the project leads to the formation of a network of national political analysts and advisors that on the one hand can be functional for the project work in the country, and on the other hand can make up Strategic Advice Units (SAU), which can play an active role in high level decision making spaces at the national or regional level.

what is the added value of papep political analysis?

PAPEP has a proven capacity to foster political interaction and advice. The key concept underpinning the PAPEP is the idea that political analysis is necessary for development to be effective, and that it makes sense if it leads to action. The project promotes political interaction through studies whose findings are presented to and discussed and validated with high ranking political actors during key decision making moments. It is important to emphasize that the PAPEPs alone cannot have an impact on changing the course of events, as this is the result of decisions taken by national partners. While the PAPEP team can provide advice on the best course of action to follow based on the analysis, it is of course the prerogative of national partners to accept or reject the advice provided. Most of the time, the political advice generated by the PAPEP teams leads to independent and savvy decision making. However, evidently national actors have the final say on whether and how to use the products generated by the project.

The project is particularly effective in fostering political interaction because it operates under the internationally recognized UN/UNDP global mandate which sheds light on political legitimacy and neutrality in the PAPEP’s work. The project stands out from other political analysis initiatives or private consultancies because it is part of the UN. It does not take a stand for any particular client, actor or ideology. While on the one hand the recognized neutrality of the UN/UNDP and PAPEP allows the project to involve a wide number of national actors in the prospective exercise and in the interaction and dialogue that spread from it, on the other hand, it can be argued that the PAPEP is not completely neutral since it actively supports national capacities for development political management and democratic effectiveness in responding to the citizens’ needs. In doing so, the PAPEP actively contributes to the strengthening of Democratic Governance (DG), Human Development (HD) and Human Rights (HR).

• The PAPEP has a network of experienced experts and a validated and specialized research and study methodology made up of social sciences data collection techniques, analysis approach and results presentation methods. This methodology is based on the idea that it is essential to identify national key actors’ perceptions and opinions of future political challenges in advance, in order to anticipate them and propose alternative political paths. To foster an effective political interaction PAPEP adopts a prospective vision approach. Its research and analysis are geared at analyzing possible socio political and economic changes over time and anticipating their impacts.
• National ownership is a fundamental part of a PAPEP, without which the project would miss its core objective. Absence of national ownership would undermine the project’s capacity to carry out a thorough prospective analysis and foster political interaction and advice. The project generates and enhances multi-stakeholder political dialogue national capacities through the active involvement of national players. At the same time, as mentioned above, the PAPEP believes that it is essential to create a network of national political advisors and analysts that can make up Strategic Advice Units (SAU) active in key decision making spaces at national or regional level. In doing so, the project strengthens national political capacities for development management.

• In most PAPEP cases national counterparts are both the beneficiaries and players of the project. National actors can benefit from it because it allows taking consensus based decisions on issues that have a direct positive impact on HR, DG and HD. These decisions are the result of a collective effort whose players are the main social, political and economic national actors. To make the project as effective as possible, the individuals involved in the process must be relevant decision makers for the political issue or public policy being studied. The PAPEP enables the creation of an environment in which the direct beneficiaries of the project end up building their own results through deliberation and interaction based on empirical data analysis.
• National experts, with a proven knowledge of the country where the project is implemented (through years of experience studying its social, political and economic realities and trends) play a key role in the project implementation. Nationals with a relevant professional background bring an added value to the research, analysis and interaction processes. Beyond formal knowledge, nationals often have a “country and actors’ sensitivity” that can help when identifying hidden key issues/problems in a given political agenda that foreigners could fail to see. At the same time they can reach, or find the way to reach, actors or sectors who are politically polarized and may not trust the project. During the dialogue phase the use of “soft skills” for interaction, supported by informal knowledge of who is who and how things are dealt with, can be a determining factor of success. The thorough and innate knowledge of the field reality and the actors involved, that most often only national officers can have, becomes a key factor for the project to be effective.
• PAPEP’s vast array of data collection techniques and application possibilities make it a very flexible project that can be used in different realities and be instrumental for different development national and international actors. PAPEP’s flexibility makes it highly adaptable to the environment it works in and to the changing needs and expectations of the beneficiaries. Flexibility not only entails adaptability to different environments and clients, it also means that UNDP COs can choose from PAPEP’s various products and research and analysis tools those that better suit their particular requirements and available funds. Furthermore, PAPEP’s dialogical and participatory approach enables the generation of a “relational capital” that can be highly valuable and functional for UNDP work in the country, strengthening cooperation with and among national counterparts.
• To foster successful political interaction the PAPEP gives particular importance to the political analysis results presentation phase. Presentations aiming at promoting political interaction are participatory, including all strategic actors in small homogeneous groups at meetings. In order to make interaction effective, mapping actors is fundamental to identify who is who, and in which group meeting he/she should participate. Usually the same results are presented more than once to different small homogeneous groups. This is done to create a friendly environment that supports constructive debate. On the contrary, large meetings of heterogeneous groups would make it difficult to achieve effective interaction, i.e. in a very conflictive and polarized situation the PAPEP would present the same prospective analysis results to the antagonist actors in separate sessions. The idea is to make them think about the best scenario available, which obviously entails dialogue, but not to have them sit at the same table. This may happen eventually, but at the instigation of the actors themselves.